Top 10 Global Warming Lies!

This is a quick version, if you want the full version click <<here>>

Claim 1: Temperatures are Hotter and Rising Faster Than Ever Before.

Fact A: The most prestigious body ever assembled was put together by the National Academy of Sciences to assess the "hockey stick" and other statements like "the ten hottest years in the last millennium were in the last decade" etc and all were found to be false! For a summary of the Wegman report have a look <<here>> or for the full report go <<here>>

Fact B: The press release from the Australian BoM was headed: "2005: Australia's warmest year on record ?" Well the equally strident answer is:

NO, IT WAS NOT THE HOTTEST ON RECORD, IN FACT IT WASN’T EVEN CLOSE!

NASA’s data is out and 2005 wasn’t even close! But where are the extremists now? Why does the press publish the original claims and never take anyone to task when these fraudulent claims prove false?

Fact C: The Earth has been significantly hotter than it is at the moment, about 2-3C hotter. At the current rate it would take another 200-300 years to reach the same temperature.

Further, during the last exit from an ice age the temperature increased at a rates up to an order of magnitude faster than the current warming. During that warming phase, sea-level also rose about 10 times faster than even the most strident suggestions. And during a recent interglacial period, about 400 thousand years ago, sea-level may have been as much as 25 m higher than present. Sudden climate change is therefore a normal part of the Earth's cycle.

Absolutely nothing that is happening at the moment, or that has happened in the last 200 years, is manifestly outside of the normal patterns of the Earth's natural climate cycles!

Claim 2: Warming Will Create Unusual Weather and Animal Events

Fact A: Blaming GW for more intense Cyclone is False! A House of Lords committee after interviewing the most eminent climatologists in the world on this issue reported that: "there is uncertainty and controversy about the underlying data required to substantiate this claim".

In direct contrast to the rabid claims the historical record shows that the frequency and severity of storms is actually worst during cooler periods of the earth. The geological record shows that the last 1000 years (one of the warmest periods) have been a relatively quiet period of cyclone activity. But sediments in the Gulf of Mexico from 1500 years ago indicate frequent storms of almost unimaginable ferocity.

Fact B: Blaming GW for changing animal behaviour such as Great Whites (Carcharadon carcharias) appearing in Alaska is False. GWs are endothermic – able to elevate their body temperature above that of the surrounding water. They can tolerate a broad temperature range, providing them access to prey (primarily coastal pinnipeds) over a wide ecological niche -- including sub-artic Alaskan waters. They have long been observed along the U.S. coastline from California to Alaska (3) and in other cold waters e.g. Southern Australia and sub Antarctic waters!

Fact C: So are polar bears being endangered by an early melting of the Arctic ice as suggested by Dr Stirling and WWF?. Well not according to the WWF's own study "Polar Bears at Risk". The report found that polar bear populations are stable and in many areas are actually increasing. In fact they were found to be in decline in only two of the 19 areas studied. True to form the WWF press release only referred to the to areas that were in decline and did not mention the 17 where polar bears were actually increasing! This is typical of the lies and falsehoods propagated by these environmental groups. More recent studies have found a 20 to 25% increase in polar bear numbers across Canada. In some areas the numbers have increased to the point where the indigenous Inuit have increased the number of polar bears available for hunting. In a number of Arctic villages polar bears are so abundant there is a serious public safety issue.

Claim 3: Warming is Melting The Arctic Glaciers and Greenland Ice Sheets and Raising Sea Levels.

Fact A: Some have pointed to the melting and thinning of ice in the coastal areas of Greenland. However, opposite changes are occurring in the much larger interior ice sheet. A Norwegian-led team of scientists (9) studying an 11- year period (1992-2003) of Greenland ice sheet activity reports that "below 1500 meters, the elevation-change rate is -2.0 ± 0.9 cm/year, in qualitative agreement with reported thinning in the ice-sheet margins," but that "an increase of 6.4 ± 0.2 cm/year is found in the vast interior areas above 1500 meters."

Spatially averaged over the bulk of the ice sheet, the net result is a mean increase of 5.4 ± 0.2 cm/year, "or ~6.0 cm over 11 years.

The Greenland Ice Sheet has not been wasting away, but has been growing at a very respectable rate. This increase, like the one in Antarctic, is removing water from the oceans.

One could scientifically dispute nearly every claim made by the extremists about ice sheets but the public never have the opportunity to hear it.

Fact: B Quotes from a joint Greenland US study group over 4 years of studying Greenland's ice cores:

"The 018 and H2 records confirm that large and rapid temperature oscillations have occurred through most of the last 110,000 year period. They are of a scale that has not been experienced during the past 10,000 years in which human society mainly developed.
....Especially astonishing are the very short times needed for major warmings. A temperature increase of 5°C can occur in a few decades.
....The fast climatic variations observed in the 018 record of Greenland ice cores would attract only limited attention if they were only local in character. However, there is ample evidence that these fast climatic fluctuations are also affecting regions far away from Greenland. Indeed, there is good correlation between some of the fast climatic variations observed in the Greenland ice cores and variations observed in deep sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic." (11)

Fact C: Glacial advance and retreat is a natural process, not anthropogenic! A recent 300-year study of North America's Glacier Park found that glaciers have advanced and retreated repeatedly, and not in sync with variable greenhouse gas levels (6).

Another study found Alaskan glaciers have had periods of advance and retreat for the last 700 years at least. A researcher at the University of Alaska Southeast reports that about 800 years ago Herbert Glacier (often featured as an example of melting!) retreated miles back into its valley enough for a forest to grow, and then it advanced and receded again, and then advanced. Now it’s again receding (7) There were no SUVs or power plants 800 years ago!

Claim 4: Warming is Melting the Antarctic Which Is Contributing to Sea Level Rises and Flooding of Coastal areas and Sinking of Islands

Fact A: A robust literature shows that during the period of time the so called “experts” claim the planet experienced the warmest temperatures of the past two millennia, Antarctica experienced a net buildup of ice that actually removed water from the earth’s oceans (8).

Fact B: As usual there is no evidence to support these claims of sinking Islands.

The South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project (funded by Australia via AusAID!) in conjunction with the National Tidal Facility (NTF), has found no evidence of rising sea levels!

Professor Nils Axel-Morner, head of the PaleoGeophysics and Geodynamics Department at Stockholm University, and past president of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, has also denied there is any evidence of sea level changes. His arguments are supported by satellite measurements which show no change in sea level over the past decade.

Claims by the IPCC that the Maldive Islands in the Indian Ocean are at risk from sea level rise accelerated by global warming ARE ANOTHER LIE!. Prof Morner has found considerable evidence that the sea level in the Maldives has fallen over the past 30 years, and that the islands and their people survived much higher sea levels in the past. The islands, like those in the Pacific, are near the boundaries of the earth’s tectonic plates, whose movement is mainly responsible for their uplift or sinking relative to global mean sea level.

Recent research may (and I stress may!) indicate some slight variation in the Antarctic ice sheet melting versus deposition ratio in the 2002-2004 period but this research is yet to be verified and confirmed. But if it does prove to be valid then it is probably as expected: the sun is warming up and the poles may shrink as that happens and is probably part of the natural advance and retreat of all glacial and polar systems.

But here is the killer: The argument for rising sea levels/sinking islands is that the polar ice caps are melting and therefore sea levels are rising. It is revealing that many of the so called experts do not understand that ALL of the Arctic Ice Cap and much of Antarctica ice FLOATS, read that again so it sinks in: IT FLOATS, and as a result it makes a negligible difference whether it melts or not because most of it's already in the water!

Claim 5: Warming is Causing World-Wide Loss of Coral reefs.

Fact: False. Two marine biologists have recently concluded that from 10,000 to 6,000 years ago, extra tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were 2-3°C warmer than at present and coral reefs flourished (5). They reported that the fossil record clearly demonstrates the ability of corals to expand their ranges poleward in response to global warming and to "reconstitute reef communities in the face of rapid environmental change." In fact, they report that coral range expansions are occurring today, noting that "there is mounting evidence that coral species are responding to recent patterns of increased SSTs by expanding their latitudinal ranges."

More recent research also indicates that coral reefs are healthier than ever and can adapt to warmer water by changing the algal partner the corals cohabit with (10).

Claim 6: There is No Other Explanation for Global Warming.

Fact: This is False! There are three basic reasons why our climate gets warmer or cooler, Greenhouse effect, Solar activity and Celestial position and orbits.

Greenhouse effect is based upon some very basic science by Boltzman from which we can say that if it were not for the Greenhouse effect that the earth would be about 33C cooler than it is. But we don't understand it very well: when we plug our “theoretical” model of the atmosphere into a computer model (the same model used for all those cataclysmic predictions) about 20-30W/m2 goes missing! To put this in perspective the total greenhouse effect from all the CO2 is about 5W/m2! So the error from the absorption anomaly is 4-6 times greater than the whole CO2 greenhouse effect!

Solar activity can easily account for almost all the temperature changes we have seen and indeed solar activity has been the highest in the last 8000 years than at any other time period in the earths history. This also corresponds to one of the warmest periods in earth's history. The simple fact is that solar activity and global temperature align almost perfectly.

Finally we know that the earths orbit also has a dramatic effect on climate. Previous periods in earths history (for example one known as MS-11) clearly show that the position of Earths orbit affects the climate. The MS-11 period is particularly relevant to today because of the almost identical similarity to today’s celestial positioning! That warm period lasted 10,000 years.

Claim 7: 2003 European Heat Wave was Responsible for Many deaths.

Fact: Half truth. Lack of adaptation and government policies were primary causes of deaths. It is the rare, unexpected heat wave that often kills. Where heat waves are more common, populations adapt. Although no one has suggested that Europe will have future climates like the American southwest, the heat experienced in Europe in 2003 was far less severe than normal summer conditions experienced by residents of Phoenix, Arizona or Las Vegas, Nevada or much of Australia and the African continents. In fact the "green" inspired energy policy of some European countries could make the effect of any warming much worse.

In direct and ironic contrast the recent cold snap in 2005/6 actually killed about 10 times more people than the heat wave did!

Claim 8: Warming is Responsible for Malarial and Other Disease Outbreaks.

Fact A: False. Not a single instance is supported by evidence in the peer reviewed literature. Studies have shown no relation between climate (periodic ups and downs) and malaria incidence, but lots of evidence for drug resistance, cessation of use of insecticides like DDT, movements of people from malaria-burdened lowlands, etc. Until the second half of the 20th century, malaria was endemic in the U.S. and widespread in many temperate regions, with major epidemics as far north as the Arctic Circle (4). Malaria was also known to be endemic throughout Europe in the Greco Roman era.

Fact B: Leading specialists have found the opposite to be true: “Mean temperatures show weak and inconsistent correlations with incidence" (1). For example incidence of Lyme disease are instead related to the return of forests near homes, creating “edge habitat” and an explosion in deer populations which carry the blackleg tick which carries the bacteria. Lyme disease is not a problem in the warmer Southern states of the US (2).

This trend is repeated across the globe where arbobacteria and arboviruses are found.

Claim 9: Scientists Agree that Anthropogenic CO2 is the Cause of Global Warming

Fact A: Over 17,000 scientists have signed a petition saying, in part, "there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate."

Fact B: A Gallup poll found that only 17 percent of the members of the Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Society think that the warming of the 20th century has been a result of greenhouse gas emissions - principally CO2 from burning fossil fuels.

Fact C: Only 13 percent of the scientists responding to a survey conducted by the environmental organization Greenpeace believe catastrophic climate change will result from continuing current patterns of energy use.

FACT D: At the most recent international meetings of climatologists nearly 25% of the surveyed attendees did not believe that anthropogenic warming was wholly responsible for the current warming.

So is there “consensus” amongst scientists? Yes there is and it is:

THE ANTHROPOGENIC THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT SETTLED!

Claim 10: The Predictions of the Computer Models are Reliable

I HAVE SAVED THE BIGGEST LIE OF ALL FOR LAST

The creator of the first deterministic models has now simply stated that they are completely useless for predicting the complex nature of the environment and should be discarded. Most of the models do not take into account such fundamental things as solar flux variations and NONE can model the gas which makes up >96% of the greenhouse gases: water and/or clouds with anything other than order of magnitude accuracy. In addition our models of the earth's basic atmospheric chemistry are woefully primitive. To add to this the cell size is orders of magnitude too large and initial conditions and boundary limits are simply not know with any accuracy.

This is why the pundits of the "we are all going to die" keep their computer models SECRET. Yes you read correctly: the screaming doomsayers like Dr Hansen will not let anyone else see or examine their computer programs which predict these cataclysmic scenarios! ASK YOURSELF WHY?

But the proviso our own CSIRO’s on its computer modelling puts it rather nicely:

“This report relates to climate change scenarios based on computer modelling. Models involve simplifications of the real processes that are not fully understood. Accordingly, no responsibility will be accepted by CSIRO or the government for the accuracy of forecasts or predictions inferred from this report or for any person's interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in reliance on this report.”

However I will leave the last words on computer models to Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor at the University of Wisconsin, and universally regarded as the ‘father of climatology’ and the inventor of the weather and climate modelling systems:

“A model is nothing more than a formal statement about how the modeller believes the part of the world of his concern actually works … it may be years before computer capacity and human knowledge are adequate for reasonable simulation … the main models in use all have similar errors, but it is hardly surprising, for they are all essentially clones of each other."

References

1: Effects of Acorn Production and Mouse Abundance on Abundance and Borrelia burgdorferi Infection Prevalence of Nymphal Ixodes scapularis Ticks Richard S. Ostfeld, Eric M. Schauber, Charles D. Canham, Felicia Keesing, Clive G. Jones, Jerry O. Wolff Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. Mar 2001, Vol. 1, No. 1: 55-63